Friday, April 19 2019

9:00am - 11:00am

9:00am - 11:00am

Masters Presentation

Masters Project Presentation

In this empirical study, we seek to understand the effect of gun laws on the Australian

homicide rate using the time series data from 1960 to 2004. There are few misleading

analysis attempting to explain the drastic drop in the number of crimes committed

following the Firearms Act of 1996. However, we believe there is a much better

alternative to describe such an event. Economists have coined the term "Shock" to

describe a jump or a gap in the response variable corresponding to major changes in

policy. A shock component in time series model is traditionally embedded in the white

noise and is often difficult to analyze. Our shock model, in contrast, is capable of

improving the adjusted R-squares to 76% and reducing the MSE to less than 0.0043

which is twice better than traditional methods.

homicide rate using the time series data from 1960 to 2004. There are few misleading

analysis attempting to explain the drastic drop in the number of crimes committed

following the Firearms Act of 1996. However, we believe there is a much better

alternative to describe such an event. Economists have coined the term "Shock" to

describe a jump or a gap in the response variable corresponding to major changes in

policy. A shock component in time series model is traditionally embedded in the white

noise and is often difficult to analyze. Our shock model, in contrast, is capable of

improving the adjusted R-squares to 76% and reducing the MSE to less than 0.0043

which is twice better than traditional methods.

Speaker: | Selathang Chanthan |

Affiliation: | |

Location: | 4017 |

Done