Friday, April 19 2019
9:00am - 11:00am
Masters Presentation
Masters Project Presentation

In this empirical study, we seek to understand the effect of gun laws on the Australian
homicide rate using the time series data from 1960 to 2004. There are few misleading
analysis attempting to explain the drastic drop in the number of crimes committed
following the Firearms Act of 1996. However, we believe there is a much better
alternative to describe such an event. Economists have coined the term "Shock" to
describe a jump or a gap in the response variable corresponding to major changes in
policy. A shock component in time series model is traditionally embedded in the white
noise and is often difficult to analyze. Our shock model, in contrast, is capable of
improving the adjusted R-squares to 76% and reducing the MSE to less than 0.0043
which is twice better than traditional methods.
Speaker:Selathang Chanthan

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